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Caution

Very High Risk

US

Tesla Inc.

TSLA

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

$410.63 $-6.81 (-1.63%)

Target

$280.00

-31.8% upside

Moat

6.2 /10

Margin of Safety

-46.6%

vs target

Investment Thesis

Tesla trades at 383x earnings while revenue declined -3.1% and net income collapsed -60.6% in the latest year. The Robotaxi and FSD optionality is real but priced in at absurd multiples. Automotive margin erosion is a structural problem. Significant downside risk to $280 or below. Caution warranted.

Reviewed 2026-02-18

Valuation Analysis

Valuation Multiples

P/E Unavailable

383.8x

Historical percentile unavailable

5yr avg 150.0x +156%

Industry 8.0x +4697%

P/B Unavailable

18.8x

Historical percentile unavailable

5yr avg 20.0x -6%

Industry 1.2x +1463%

P/S Unavailable

16.2x

Historical percentile unavailable

5yr avg 10.0x +62%

Industry 0.4x +3950%

EV/EBITDA Unavailable

95.0x

Historical percentile unavailable

5yr avg 60.0x +58%

Industry 4.0x +2275%

PEG Unavailable

-6.3x

Historical percentile unavailable

5yr avg 5.0x -226%

Industry 0.8x -887%

Valuation Radar — Current vs Industry

Historical Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Valuation Summary

Historical valuation percentiles are unavailable for these multiples. The margin of safety to our target price is -46.6%.